Demand for mortgage loans increased by 10-13% in the second half of October. VTB believes that in 2023 the Russian mortgage market will reach a record and exceed 6.9 trillion rubles. Given prime rate increases and the inevitable increase in loan prices, what is causing the increase in interest in mortgages? Who should buy real estate with a mortgage now?
Despite prime rate increases, demand for mortgages is increasing. Demand for mortgage loans increased by more than 10% in the last two weeks of October compared to the previous two weeks, writes: rbc With reference to data from Sberbank and VTB. it happened in the background promotion The Central Bank will raise the key rate to 15% on October 27.
According to DomClick, compared to the same period last year, the demand for mortgages increased by 70%. VTB estimates that the Russian mortgage market this year could reach a record and exceed 6.9 trillion rubles.
He believes the reason for increased demand is a psychological factor Alexey Kazarin, General Director of the Company “System of Credit Specialists”,
– The main reason is still a psychological factor; It is unlikely that people will take the higher rates. Probably, this is still the volume of applications for various state assistance programs – family mortgage, IT mortgage, etc. People may be expecting that the rates under these programs will also increase soon, which is why they have started taking out mortgages.
— Is it worth taking out a mortgage now or is it better to wait?
– Of course, if the issue is not urgent, it is better to wait for better times. I still hope that the rates may come down by a few percent from the third or fourth quarter of next year.
— What will happen to mortgage demand in the near future?
—The market is divided into two parts: regular programs and discounted rates. If we talk about concessional rates then I think the demand will be quite high. Now we are still in the fourth quarter, and it always shows traditionally good demand, and a large number of transactions at the end of the year. I won’t make any long-term predictions, but I think next year won’t look like this. For the first six months, perhaps, there will still be demand – now it has been announced that the state aid program is valid until the summer of 2024, and, perhaps, also against the background of the fact that these programs will end, I think That demand may be very high, especially for government assistance programs. I don’t think we’ll see any serious demand for regular events; Still there will be some kind of decline.
Real estate expert Dmitry Rakuta, founder of the Association of Mortgage Brokers, points out that demand is only growing in the preferential mortgage segment:
Dmitry Rakuta Founder of the Mortgage Brokers Association, real estate expert
At the same time, VTB says that in the second half of October the share of applications for housing loans with state support decreased from 47% to 44% compared to earlier. In Rosbank House, on the contrary, they especially note an increase in interest in preferential mortgages, in particular, we are talking about IT mortgages, RBC explains in its material.