[Великая Эпоха, 14 ноября 2023 г.](Epoch Times reporter Zhou Xing reported in Toronto) Welcoming immigrants has always benefited Canada. keep up and even support the Government makes decisionsStatistical dataIt’s no longer reliable.
Economists Dylan Smith and Atakan Bakiskan of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. published an article in the Financial Post stating that Canada’s demographics are becoming increasingly diverse. “This undermines the reliability of a range of market variables related to demographics, from employment data to housing and productivity.”
The federal government has significantly increased the number of temporary residents.
According to the Labor Force Survey of the Federal Statistical Office (LFS), approximately 500,000 temporary residents are employed. However, Department of Immigration data shows that as of December 2022, there were approximately 1.5 million temporary residents in employment. The difference between them reaches 1 million people.
While there is some evidence to suggest that the Immigration Department’s figures are slightly higher (possibly double counting people with both study and work permits), the article suggests that the Bureau of Statistics’ figures are a serious underestimate. This is partly due to unclear questions in the survey, and partly due to low response rates that lead to an underestimation of the weight of temporary residents.
Similar problems exist with demographics. According to the latest census, there were 925,000 people living temporarily in 2021; however, according to data obtained after updating the statistical methodology, which adjusted the number of people remaining in Canada after permits expired, the number was 1.38 million.
Impact on Canada
There are no reliable estimates of the unemployment rate for temporary residents, which affects the accuracy of the official unemployment rate. Moreover, without accurate data, it is impossible to properly assess vacancies in the industry and the suitability of the workforce.
The article suggests that Canada’s skills mismatch may not be as severe as Bureau of Statistics data suggests, meaning wage pressure may be lower than the statistics show.
Housing and construction
The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) estimates that 3.5 million new homes will need to be built by 2030 to restore affordability to the housing market. But CMHC uses census data rather than updated statistical methods.
Because temporary residents also need housing, CMHC’s estimate may be lower than the actual situation and housing production targets may be higher than expected.
Productivity is measured as real output of gross domestic product per hour. Basic data on working hours comes from the statistical office, and productivity depends on the number of residents employed. Holding average working hours and real GDP constant, adding 1 million more workers would result in a 4.6% decline in productivity in the third quarter.
Because underestimation of employment accumulates over time, this means that the decline in productivity over the past five years may be deeper than it appears. “This has had a number of political consequences,” the article says.
Responsible Editor: Yue Yi