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China’s real estate investment fell 9.3% year-on-year in October, after which the decline widened | Commercial Housing Sales | Investments in real estate development

[Великая Эпоха, 15 ноября 2023 г.](Detailed report by Epoch Times reporter Chen Ting) On Wednesday (November 15), official data released by the Chinese Communist Party showed that in Octoberreal estate in ChinaSales have fallen at an accelerated pace and property investment has continued to fall, a sign that the property sector is not out of the woods despite recent increased support from Beijing.

Reuters calculated, based on data released by the Chinese Communist Party’s Bureau of Statistics, that in OctoberSale of commercial housingCompared to last year, the area decreased by 20.33%, and the decrease in September was 19.77%.

Moreover, the first 10 months.real estate in ChinaDevelopment investment fell 9.3% year on year, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points from the previous nine months.

Property investment fell 16.7% in October from a year earlier, after falling 18.7% in September, according to Reuters calculations.

In addition, over the 10 months of this year, the area of ​​newly started housing construction also decreased by 23.2% year on year, and the area of ​​newly started housing construction decreased by 23.6% compared to last year. .

However, these measures failed to lead to a significant recovery in the housing market.

Beijing remains concerned that the risks could spread to other industries and threaten financial stability.

“It is clear that the real estate industry remains a weak link in the economy and will require further support for the foreseeable future,” Zhou Hao, chief economist at Guotai Junan International, told Bloomberg.

Bloomberg reported Tuesday that China plans to provide 1 trillion yuan (about $137 billion) in low-cost financing for urban village redevelopment and affordable housing projects, citing people familiar with the matter. Economists are discussing the plan’s potential impact.

Some economists believe that while the People’s Bank of China previously used secured supplementary loans (PSL) for so-called “slum upgrading” programs between 2014 and 2019. However, urban village redevelopment may not have the same effect as slum renewal, since new projects are mainly concentrated in China’s major cities.

Jacqueline Rong, deputy chief economist for China at BNP Paribas SA, said these larger cities account for a smaller share of the overall property market compared with smaller cities where slums are located.

She believes urban village plans may be more difficult to implement and may take longer to implement.

“The biggest obstacle to the real estate recovery is the large number of pre-sold but unfinished homes in lower-tier cities,” Lu Ting, chief economist at Nomura Securities China, wrote in a report Wednesday.

“We believe Beijing will eventually have to use its own money, using notes printed by the People’s Bank of China (such as the PSL) to fill the huge funding gap and ensure the delivery of pre-sold homes,” the report said.

Responsible Editor: Lee Moen#

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